The premier of Ontario disagrees with a report from the Financial Accountability Office of Ontario (FAO) that predicts the province could be heading towards a "modest" recession this year due to the U.S. tariff war.
On Wednesday morning, the FAO also projected that potential growth will be cut nearly in half next year.
The dire prediction added there will be more than 68,000 fewer jobs in Ontario in 2025 as a result of tariffs, with the manufacturing sector feeling the largest impact, losing almost 58,000 jobs by 2026. By 2029, the report says Ontario will have lost almost 140,000 jobs, noted the FAO.
The FAO forecasted Windsor to be the worst hit community.
Ford admitted that the tariffs will hurt Ontario, but added that he has confidence that the trade war with the U.S. will be worked out in time.
"I’m confident, I really am. I always look at the glass as half full. No one can predict the future, but I’m predicting that we’re going to do better than other jurisdictions around the world and around North America.” said Ford. "We're continuing to see investment in our province. Minister Vic Fedeli just came back from a trip with $400 million in commitment that will create a thousand jobs, the week before that it was over a billion dollars of investment, creating another 1,700 jobs."
The FAO said the impact of tariffs on Ontario's economy would depend on multiple factors, including the “magnitude, breadth, and duration” of tariffs.
The report stated Ontario could dodge a recession this year if tariffs are reduced from 25 per cent to 10 per cent, but could have a deeper recession with additional tariffs on copper and lumber and increases on steel, aluminum, and automobiles.
Statistics Canada also reported that real gross domestic product (GDP) was down 0.2 per cent in February 2025, partly offsetting January's 0.4 per cent increase.