West Grey is bracing for potential flooding as frazil ice formation threatens to create dangerous conditions along the Main Saugeen River.
A new Flood Outlook Statement issued by the Saugeen Valley Conservation Authority (SVCA) highlights the risk, with cold temperatures and turbulent river flows forecast through January 20, 2025.
The warning comes amid heightened concerns following recent changes to the Durham upper dam that may exacerbate the situation.
Frazil ice forms in extremely cold temperatures when fast-moving water is exposed to air. With daytime highs below -10°C and nighttime lows dipping as low as -22°C over the next two weeks, conditions are ripe for the development of frazil ice. The risk is particularly pronounced in Durham, where the river has historically been vulnerable to ice jams.
Durham has experienced devastating frazil ice flooding in the past, most notably in January 1997. That event displaced more than 200 residents, caused over $1.1-million in personal property damage, and required extensive emergency measures, including the use of high hoes and even dynamite to clear the ice. The aftermath left sections of the community unusable for months.
Following the 1997 disaster, boards were installed at the Durham upper dam to regulate water flow and reduce the risk of frazil ice formation. While this measure appeared to mitigate flooding, recent engineering assessments revealed that the dam could not withstand the extra strain caused by the boards. In November 2024, the SVCA board voted to remove them, opting instead to leave the dam open to prevent structural failure.
West Grey Mayor Kevin Eccles, who is also an SVCA board member, voted against the decision, expressing grave concerns about the potential consequences.
"This was what I was concerned about," Eccles said in an interview with CKNXNewsToday.ca. "Knowing the history and seeing the trauma that the town of Durham went through, with over 200 people evacuated and homes uninhabitable for months, I didn’t want to see us in that situation again."
With the Flood Outlook Statement now in effect, SVCA and municipal staff are closely monitoring river conditions and preparing to respond if ice jams form. The focus is on a stretch of the river known locally as Moffatt’s Hole, located behind the baseball diamonds in Durham. This area has minimal flow and is prone to ice buildup, which can cause water to back up into the town.
“If the frazil ice starts to build up, it will create an ice dam,” Eccles explained. “That’s why we’re contracting high hoes to be on standby. These machines will need to go directly into the river to break up the ice and prevent further backup. It’s the only way to control the situation and minimize damage.”
Efforts are underway to explore long-term solutions to mitigate frazil ice risks in Durham. The SVCA has applied for funding on West Grey’s behalf to conduct an environmental assessment of the Durham upper dam. The study will evaluate whether modifications to the dam or alternative measures could better protect the community. However, questions remain over how the costs will be covered.