The current trade tiff between two old friends and neighbours may still mean big gains for Canadian travel and tourism, according to a new report.
The report, released last week by the Conference Board of Canada, suggests Canadian tourism may greatly benefit from fewer people crossing into the United States for vacations.
Since tariffs were implemented this winter by U.S. President Donald Trump, cross-border travel has fallen with the exception of daily commuters and business travel. However, the Conference Board's report suggests that could lead to a lucrative summer for Canadian attractions.
"Travel is one of the main areas where Canadians support the U.S. economy much more than Americans support Canada," read the report. "To put the value in context, in 2023, Canadians spent $26.6-billion on tourism in the U.S. compared to the $12.9-billion Americans spent in Canada."
The report said the shift in travel due to tariffs could result in billions more for the Canadian economy.
"On net, we still estimate that travel spending in Canada, by Canadians, could increase by up to $10.3-billion this year stemming from this shift in travel preferences," read the report. "This figure falls to $8.8-billion once the impacts of reduced American travel to Canada is included."
The Conference Board's Travel Intentions Survey appears to support the theory that fewer Canadians may head to the U.S. for even a quick getaway. This chart shows a significant drop among those planning a leisure trip to the States.
The $26.6-billion spent by Canadians in the U.S. in 2023 is more than all other countries combined, read the report. Adjusting for inflation and assuming no growth in spending, that total translates to $27.7-billion in 2025.
The report also cited some drawbacks.
"Canadians typically spend more per trip when travelling internationally than when travelling domestically," read the report. "Even as Canadians shift to domestic trips, they will be unlikely to spend as lavishly on these vacations, although there is likely to be a shift in the type of domestic trips being made towards longer and higher cost trips compared to historical norms. Tariffs, weaker near-term economic growth, and a highly uncertain outlook will limit discretionary spending."
The Conference Board also acknowledged that any gains in Canadian tourism may be offset by fewer Americans visiting Canada, despite efforts made to ensure Americans that anger about tariffs is directed at the U.S. government, not the American people.
The complete report may be found on the Conference Board of Canada's official website.