With threats to Canadian sovereignty coming from the White House and the spectre of new tariffs anticipated this week, one might forgive Canadians if they wonder if the Americans have engaged in a destabilization program against their closest allies and purported best friends.
But is that the case?
First, it is helpful if Canadians understand what a destabilization program is.
According to Political Science Professor at McMaster University Don Abelson, a destabilization program is "an intentional and coordinated effort using statecraft for a specific outcome."
At face value, one could argue the outcome has been communicated clearly by the U.S. President and members of his administration; making Canada a 51st state.
Abelson, who has written several books and articles about the influence of American think tanks and U.S. foreign policy, doesn't believe the answer is clear.
"The problem is trying to figure out exactly what the Trump administration's end game is," said Abelson. "We knew in the early 1970s when the United States was relying on the CIA to promote a destabilization campaign in Chile."
NPR reports the U.S. had meddled in Chilean politics for years when self-proclaimed Marxist Salvador Allende ran for President. The American government boosted an anti-communist propaganda campaign in 1964, handing Allende's competitor, Eduardo Frei Montalva, the presidential win.
Allende ran again in 1970. Again, the U.S. perceived him as a threat to its interests in Chile. Ahead of that election, the U.S. again spent hundreds of thousands of dollars to discredit Allende. That time, Allende narrowly won the vote.
What followed next was a campaign to shore up the opposition to make it difficult for Allende to govern. The American government achieved this goal by cutting off international monetary aid, stifling loans from the World Bank, cutting export credits from the U.S., and pouring money into a militant pro-coup opposition, setting the stage for the eventual coup and takeover by the Augusto Pinochet regime.
As for the American government's new hostility toward Canada, Abelson stresses the importance of separating the President's rhetoric from real-world consequences.
"Although the tariffs themselves are destabilizing before we reach the conclusion that the United States is trying to engage in a destabilization campaign, we have to take a deep breath and figure out what exactly the Trump Administration is trying to achieve," cautioned Abelson. "Is it simply Trump trying to appease his base by making good on his commitment to promote America First interests at all costs? Is he permitted under existing international agreements to impose these kinds of tariffs?"
Canada has filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization, but so far, it has not ruled the tariffs are illegal, although Canadian officials would certainly argue they are.
A flurry of Canadian politicians have argued their case to their American counterparts that no one wins a tariff war and Americans will be hurt just as much as Canadians, if not more.
It may be helpful to take into account that while Canada has a trade dispute with the U.S., the U.S. has also threatened Mexico and the European Union.
One of those who have travelled to Washington recently is Windsor West MP Brian Masse.
Asked if Canada is experiencing a destabilization campaign, Masse is certain.
"For sure we are," he said. "It's consistent, and it's repetitive. To have it [tariffs] amongst our integrated industries shows that it's a sustained assault."
He also suggests the repetitive refrain about making Canada part of the U.S. may have a psychological impact on Canadians.
"We're not sure how serious he [Trump] is, but we need to take the threat seriously," said Masse. "The policies he's promoting are actually based on creating that type of a context."
(Masse is currently running for re-election in Windsor West against Conservative candidate Harbinder Gill, Green Party candidate Louay Ahmad, People's Party of Canada candidate Jacob Bezaire, and Communist Party candidate Joey Markham. As of March 29, no Liberal Party candidate had been nominated in Windsor West.)
Abelson does foresee more bilateral agreements with the U.S., and there are signs Canada may be open to negotiations. Global News reported Friday that Prime Minister Mark Carney and Donald Trump agreed to begin talks on a new economic and security relationship following Canada's federal election on April 28.
"President George H Bush, in his desire to negotiate the NAFTA agreement in the first place -- Initially, it wasn't going to be a trilateral agreement, but a bilateral agreement with Mexico. We were the uninvited guest," noted Abelson.
Friday's phone call between the two leaders, the first since Carney was elected Liberal Leader in March as reported by the Toronto Star, was the first time Trump referred to Canada's sovereignty and as its leader as Prime Minister rather than governor.
As new tariffs threaten to undermine the Canadian economy, Abelson urges Canadians to remain calm and prepare. Even if the Trump Administration softens its stance towards Canada, he fears the lingering effects of the MAGA movement beyond Donald Trump and over the next several years.
Many of the actions Abelson thinks could protect Canada from the possibility of less integration with the American economy are already in the works. He cited removing interprovincial trade barriers, ensuring the Canadian voice is heard in states that supported Trump in the November election, and engaging other foreign partners.
Masse doesn't think those measures are enough to protect Canadian interests.
"We need to have industrial strategies where we have real measurables and tangibles," offered Masse. "These things are critically important because then you can actually measure when we're going to have success."
Overall, Abelson does not think the annexation of Canada is driving the threats and tariffs. He believes Trump is a president who has gone rogue with a Congress that is unwilling to rein him in. For him, the big question is whether the American courts have the willingness to do it.
"I think they certainly have more than enough evidence to do it," noted Abelson. "Over the last couple of weeks, some Conservative justices that Trump appointed during his first term align with the more liberal justices. That's a very good sign."