Ontario Health officials are predicting the wave of new community spread cases of COVID-19 in the province has peaked.
However, cases in long-term care homes and other congregate settings continue to rise on a separate trajectory.
Despite the positive news in community spread cases, health officials said current public health measures like physical distancing need to remain in place.
"What peak means is that the public health interventions, both on an individual level like hand hygiene or at a societal level like the physical distancing, those have suppressed the spread of the disease. It doesn't mean that the disease has left the population. It doesn't mean that the disease is passed over," said Steini Brown, the dean of the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto. "It just means that the current set of interventions is pushing down the rate of infection."
Projections now show around 20,000 people in Ontario are likely to contract COVID-19, significantly less than the 80,000 people predicted using previous models.
The models also show that actual ICU use is trending better than the best-case scenario.
"With this additional capacity we can use it to help in other parts of society or in other systems," said Matthew Anderson, president and CEO of Ontario Health. "This allows us to use some of the capacity that is available in our acute care system to support our long term care system."
Anderson said they can now start having conversations about bringing back some elective procedures in the hospital.
Talks around bringing back parts of the economy have also started.
"This virus remains a clear and present danger, my friends we still have far to go but thanks to our collective efforts we're in a better position today," said Premier Doug Ford. "I've asked our jobs and recovery committee to develop a framework for a gradual, measured and safe reopening of our province."
Ford said the framework will have strict criteria and benchmarks that must be met before the restrictions are lifted.
