Rabobank feels international pork prices for the first quarter of 2017 will largely be based on Chinese imports.
Albert Vernooij, Animal Protein Analyst for Rabobank, says imports are expected to decline as Chinese productivity increases, but if the decline is less than expected, prices for key exporting countries, such as Canada, will be supported.
He also says exchange rates over the next two months will be an important variable to watch too.
Rabobank's recent first quarter pork report notes the margin split in the U.S. will continue for at least half a year, as rising production will continue to apply pressure on the market.
It also points out European prices are currently supported by continuing exports but the dependance on those exports isn't good, as they can decrease quickly when exchange rates aren't so favourable.
