Grain Farmers of Ontario analyst Marty Hibbs suggests the corn market has a better than average chance to work higher over the next few weeks.
He says a close above the $4.07 area based on July could lead to a challenge of the $4.40 resistance level.
Hibbs has the short term corn chart indicators positive, the weekly indicators neutral to bullish and the long term trend still down.
The GFO analyst says the momentum in the soybean market is still on the upside.
He's suggesting a close above the $10.60 resistance could see a swift move to the $11 area or higher if the funds decide to get on board.
Hibbs has the soybean short term indicators slightly overbought, the weekly signals showing good strength but the long term trend still down.
This week's GFO market commentary reports wheat appears to be following the lead of its counterparts.
It suggests if beans and corn move lower we could see further weakness in the wheat.
Hibbs says the chart indicators are mixed and it will take something significant to turn wheat north of $5 in the coming weeks.
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Grain Farmers of Ontario weekly market commentary - by Marty Hibbs:
CORN The July chart is looking healthier than we have seen in a quite a while. The two-year-old downtrend line on the weekly chart was violated the week of April 22 and we are now sitting in neutral territory with an upside bias. As long as our $3.50 support line holds on July contract, we should continue to challenge the highs of April 21 and hopefully close above there. As of May 4, I feel we have a better than average chance to work higher over the next few weeks and if we can close above the $4.07 area based on July, we will be set to challenge the next resistance of $4.40. Currently, we have both the daily and weekly charts showing signs of life and the monthly chart displays an oversold condition that is capable of turning the trend if we continue to work higher with these positive signals. We are looking at a support level of $3.50 and overhead resistance of $4.10 based on the July Chicago futures. Short term indicators are positive, while the weekly indicators are neutral to bullish, but of course, the long term trend is still down.
SOYBEANS Last week, we suggested a move above the recent highs of $10.46 to test the $10.60 resistance on the weekly chart. That worked quite nicely which challenged another major resistance line extending back two years on the weekly charts. We hit the mark and dropped almost immediately forming a hook reversal on our daily bar charts. From this area, I would expect more of a pullback to re-group before another assault on $10.60 resistance level. We could see the July contract trade back to the $9.80- $10 support level and possibly to the $9.50 area. The key here is that momentum in still on the upside and I feel we will at least attempt one more time to break through the $10.60 resistance. If we close above the $10.60 line, I would expect a swift move to the $11 area and possibly higher if the funds decide to get onboard. The charts still see the soybeans in a long term down trend. While the short term indicators are slightly overbought, the weekly signals show good strength and potential for more upside.
WHEAT July wheat retreated on a cue from its counterparts. As we mentioned before, the July contract hit directly into the overhead resistance gap at $5 - $5.25 during the week of April 22 and has since retreated back to the $4.70 support level. From here we could possibly re-visit the major support levels of $4.40 - $4.50 once again. The way the wheat has been behaving suggests that it is following the lead of its counterparts. If the beans and corn move lower on this pullback, we would expect to see further weakness in the wheat. At this point it is important to note that the indicators are mixed. It will take something significant to turn the wheat north of $5 in the coming weeks. Support is seen at the $4.40 - $4.50 level while major resistance is still at the $5.20 - $5.40 level based on the July contract.
