This week's USDA reports didn't have the expected impact on parts of the grain markets.
Grain Farmers of Ontario analyst Marty Hibbs says instead of falling, corn is now trading at two month highs, with overhead resistance around $3.75 to $3.85 on the May charts.
He has short term corn indicators neutral while the medium and long term trend is down.
Soybeans closed above the $9.50 resistance mark Wednesday.
Hibbs suggests the next target is a possible shot at the $10 level.
The GFO analyst puts soybean short and medium term indicators positive but the main trend is still down.
And he's not putting a lot of faith in Wednesday's double-digit rally for wheat.
Hibbs figures that rally could evaporate as fast as it appeared if the other grains falter in the coming days.
This week's GFO market commentary has all the wheat market indicators neutral or negative with the main trend still down.
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Grain Farmers of Ontario Weekly Market Commentary: (Marty Hibbs)
CORN: The USDA and WASDE reports in April suggested negative implications for corn prices, but those weaker prices didn’t really materialize as we are now trading at two month highs as of the close on April 13. Technically, nothing has changed in terms of the main indicators; however, we are now hitting stiff overhead resistance levels at the $3.75-$3.85 levels on our May Chicago charts. If we manage to close above the $3.85 level, our next resistance is the big $4 level on the lead month contract. Short term indicators are neutral while the medium and long term trend is still down.
SOYBEANS: Soybeans did take that second attempt at the $9.50 resistance and pushed through with a positive week, gaining almost fifty cents per bushel as of the close today April 13. We have cleared the first big resistance by closing today April 13 at $9.56 on the May contract. Now that we cleared that hurdle, our next target is a possible shot at the magical $10 level, which presents major resistance going forward. Support is now seen near the $9 level on the lead month contract. The short term indicators are still positive, and we now have a weekly buy signal. For now, both the short and medium term indicators are positive, but the main trend is still down.
WHEAT: For the second week in a row, the Chicago May contract week saw little in the way of direction as the price for Chicago futures closed within pennies of last Wednesday’s price. We are still above the six month daily trend line but we are in the middle of the trading range on the weekly charts. We flashed a sell signal on the daily charts this week after the USDA report but then we witnessed a double digit rally today April 13. These mixed signals are to be ignored for the moment as today’s rally could evaporate just as fast as it appeared, if the other grains falter in the coming days. Support is now at last week’s low of $4.45 while our initial overhead resistance is at $4.80 with significant trouble at $5-$5.25. All indicators at this point are neutral or negative but the main trend is still down.
