Grain Farmers of Ontario market analyst Marty Hibbs says the wheat market continues to show more strength than most other grains.
He admits the down-trend has been intact since at least 2011 and it will take time to turn the corner.
However, Hibbs suggests the charts are comfortable in the current range and could be preparing for a spring rally.
He has both the medium and long term wheat market trends down.
This week's GFO commentary says the March soybean contract continues to track sideways, with no clear direction.
Hibbs considers the short-term bullish signals in that market as just that - short term.
He thinks we could see another dollar on the downside before hitting serious support.
GFO has the soybean market chart trend still down.
Hibbs suggests if the corn market can close above the 3.70 and 3.80 levels on the March contract we could be cleared for the major hurdle and resistance at 4 dollars.
The commentary puts the corn market daily indicators flashing positive while the main trend remains down.
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Grain Farmers of Ontario Weekly Market Commentary: (Marty Hibbs)
CORN: On the charts: We had a constructive week on the corn futures with the $3.45 support holding as expected. We have now witnessed the first buy signal on our daily charts and if we can penetrate and close above the $3.70 and $3.80 levels on the March contract, we could be cleared for the major hurdle and resistance at $4. Meanwhile, support continues to be at the $3.45-$3.50 level, and if that should fail, we have major support once again at the $3.20 levels based on the lead month contract. Daily indicators are flashing positive signals; however, the main trend is still down.
SOYBEANS: On the charts: The March bean contract continues to track sideways for the last week with no clear direction. We are experiencing good short term support at $8.70, but major resistance at the $9 level as we have for the past few months. A close above $9 could incite a descent rally but there are many pockets of resistance as we move higher. The most glaring example is around the $9.25-$9.50 area. For now we must continue to look at the big picture and continue to suggest that any outbursts to the upside should be viewed as selling opportunities. Meanwhile, we will view the short term bullish signals as just that, short term. Weekly and monthly charts suggest a lot of work to turn this market positive, and if prices were to challenge the recent bottom of $8.50 and fail, we could see another dollar on the downside before we hit serious support. That would be around $7.50 per bushel on the lead month Chicago contract. Our main support continues to hold at the $8.40-$8.50 level on the March contract, while our overhead headwinds are $9, and again at $9.25 -$9.50. The trend is still down.
WHEAT: On the charts: So far this season, the wheat continues to show more strength than most other grains. Although prices were flat in Chicago for the week, we are building great support on the technical side. Our predicted $4.50 support on March has proven to be iron clad. We have now started once again to challenge our first goal of breaching the $5level and readying ourselves to take on the main trend-line which cuts a path through the $5.25 - $5.50 level on the lead month contract. I need to repeat that the down-trend has been intact since at least 2011 and it will take time to turn the corner but the charts tell us that we are currently comfortable in this range and we could be mounting an attack to the upside for a spring rally. Only time will tell. Meanwhile, we can watch the trading ranges and see how prices behave going forward. Solid support is seen at the $4.40-$4.50 level on March charts, while overhead resistance is at $5 and major resistance is $5.25- $5.50 on the lead month. Both the medium and long term trends remain down.
Grain Farmers of Ontario is offering another series of marketing seminars across Ontario. This time we have been focusing on “Options” on Futures. We have completed many of the seminars in January and the remaining dates for western Ontario are now completely full . We would like to thank all of those who attended and hope you enjoyed the event.
